Internet Retail

AMAZON.COM, INC.: stock analysis

Published on September 13, 2024

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Amazon.com, Inc. began in 1994 as an online bookstore, 

founded by Jeff Bezos with the vision of capitalizing on the untapped potential of the Internet.

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“

What started as a humble e-commerce platform quickly expanded into a multi-faceted global conglomerate.

MC: $1957.32B

Today, Amazon dominates various industries, from e-commerce and cloud computing (through AWS) to entertainment, logistics, and artificial intelligence.

Its Prime membership program besides increasing customer loyalty also diversified its revenue streams, solidifying Amazon's standing as one of the largest and most innovative companies in the world.

514

575

470

386

SALES (B):

2020

2021

2022

2023

2019

280

Amazon's rapid financial growth reflects its business expansion, with revenues soaring as it tapped into new markets and global e-commerce growth.

2018

233

46.7

84.9

46.3

66.1

OPERATING CASH FLOW (B):

2020

2021

2022

2023

2019

38.5

Its operating cash flow continues to rise steadily, reflecting its vast market reach and efficiency in scaling its operations.

2018

30.7

trailing 

44.68

P/E:

However, for value investors, Amazon is a puzzle. Its PE ratio exceeds the typical value investor threshold of 15, making it expensive by traditional standards.

mrq 

8.27

P/B:

The company's price-to-book ratio also exceeds the internet retail industry average of 5.76 and the typical value investor threshold of 1.

trailing 

40.49

P/FCF:

And its price-to-free-cash-flow ratio is four times higher than the typical value investor acceptable threshold of 10.

These figures suggest the stock is richly valued, with investors pricing in substantial future growth and profitability.

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5Y:

102.32%

ALL:

STOCK RETURNS

152,917.44%

Amazon's capital expenditures, consistently exceeding 100% of its net income, reflect its relentless reinvestment strategy.

2020

2021

2022

2023

2019

2018

CAPEX AS A % OF NET INCOME:

-2,142.6

158

166

164

109

112

Unlike traditional dividend-paying stocks, Amazon has never distributed dividends to its shareholders,

fueling its growth through massive investments in infrastructure, technology, and logistics.

REPURCHASES OF COMMON STOCK (B):

The company only repurchased its shares once, showing that management prioritizes long-term growth over immediate returns to shareholders.

6

0

0

0

0

0

2020

2021

2022

2023

2019

2018

YOY % growth by segment:

North America

12

International

12

AWS

13

Despite its impressive top-line growth, Amazon’s profitability metrics are not as stellar.

2022

2023

13

-8

29

Its operating and net profit margins are both below 8%, relatively slim compared to its mammoth scale.

2.4

6.4

5.3

5.9

OPERATING MARGIN:

2020

2021

2022

2023

2019

5.2

NET MARGIN:

2018

5.3

-0.52

5.3

7.1

5.5

4.1

4.3

ROE (%):

ROA (%):

Additionally, its return on assets and return on equity appear mediocre, reflecting the high costs of its extensive operations.

-1

6

8

7

5

6

-2

15

24

23

19

23

2020

2021

2022

2023

2019

2018

For a company of Amazon's size, these numbers suggest that while growth is robust, profitability and efficiency are areas for potential improvement.

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Terrain Map

CASH & CE (B):

RE (B):

Growing cash reserves and rising retained earnings allow Amazon to invest in innovations, market expansion, and acquisitions.

54

73

36

42

36

32

2020

2021

2022

2023

2019

2018

83

114

86

53

31

20

Net sales of Amazon by groups of similar products and services in 2023 (%):

16%

40%

8%

24%

AWS

Online stores

Advertising services

Physical stores

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Disc Pie Chart

Amazon's high valuation multiples show market confidence in its potential, but also raise questions about its value relative to the current price.

base case:

$132.62

best case:

$221.18

intrinsic value

Whether Amazon can maintain its trajectory or see its valuation normalize to more traditional levels remains the key question for investors.

base case:

-29%

best case:

16%

margin of safety

In conclusion, Amazon blends visionary growth with limited profitability, reflecting the challenges of managing a global empire while balancing innovation, infrastructure, and efficiency.

Investors who buy into Amazon are not purchasing traditional value—they are betting on its continued dominance and its ability to redefine entire industries in the years to come.